• The global growth outlook has weakened slightly during the past quarter, led by a mid-cycle slowdown in manufacturing across the developed world, and exacerbated by the Trump administration’s enforcement of tariffs in pursuit of its trade policy.
   
• In response, central banks are likely either to reduce interest rates modestly where they have space to do so, e.g. the Federal Reserve (Fed), or by re-starting extraordinary measures such as asset purchases or new lending to banks, e.g. targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs) by the European Central Bank (ECB).
   
• At the same time consumer price inflation in many developed economies such as the US, the eurozone, and Japan remains well below the target of 2%.
   

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The US economy has been softening in a gradual way during the past few months. The weakness has been in investment (both business and housing), employment, manufacturing and trade, but it is by no means pervasive. Consumer spending has remained buoyant, and equities have held up... Read more

With no trade deal at the G20 meeting in Japan, exports will continue to suffer. The authorities are likely to respond with further monetary and fiscal easing measures, but these are not likely to turn the economy around quickly (as in 2009-10).... Read more

Real GDP growth remains below potential and inflation should continue around 1%, well below the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) target because monetary policy is not working.... Read more