Quarterly economic outlook – Q2 2019

Chief Economist John Greenwood addresses key topics including globally low inflation, and prospects for major economies.

Apr 29, 2019 | John Greenwood

In his latest quarterly economic outlook, Chief Economist John Greenwood discusses popular topics including globally low inflation, the US economic cycle, significance of yield-curve inversions, and Modern Monetary Theory.

Among them, Dr Greenwood highlights globally low inflation as probably the most important theme that he has identified and predicted over the past decade. Even though numerous forecasters have claimed that inflation would at some stage pick up, either as a result of large fiscal deficits and high government debt or due to labour markets tightening, they have largely been disappointed, posing a conundrum for the forecasting community. 

Across the US, the Eurozone, Japan, the UK, Canada and many other OECD economies, inflation has remained at or below 2% despite a prolonged business expansion and low levels of unemployment. Where have the forecasters gone wrong? Why has inflation remained so subdued?

Click on “Download PDF” to read his analysis.

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