Insights - Macro
Insights - Macro
At Invesco, we believe that high-quality results begin with specialized insight. We share our views and experience with clients via thought leadership materials.
16 December 2019 | Paul Jackson and Arnab Das
Trade negotiations between the UK and EU could still stretch out beyond December 2020.
12 December 2019 | David Chao
It’s an important week this week for geopolitics and monetary policy. We catch up with Invesco’s Global Market Strategist for Asia Pacific, David Chao, on what he thinks of these developments.
10 December 2019 | Kristina Hooper
Weekly Market Compass: As the WTO reaches a crisis point, countries may take trade issues into their own hands
06 December 2019 | Paul Jackson and András Vig
Invesco’s Global Market Strategy Office lists out four key themes that should exert huge influences over potential investment returns.
03 December 2019 | Kristina Hooper
Weekly Market Compass: We detail our forecasts for each region and asset class
26 November 2019 | Kristina Hooper
Weekly Market Compass: Four central banks revisit policy, plus two new reports point to a continued global slowdown
19 November 2019 | Kristina Hooper and Paul Jackson
Weekly Market Compass: We expect a clear Conservative majority in Parliament, which should bode well for the prime minister’s Brexit agreement. But the real work would come afterward.
19 November 2019 | John Greenwood
Chief Economist John Greenwood shares his global economic outlook for 2020.
12 November 2019 | Kristina Hooper
Weekly Market Compass: Tariff rollbacks, agriculture purchases have remained topics of debate
05 November 2019 | Kristina Hooper
Weekly Market Compass: Powell’s assurances boosted the market’s confidence that rates will stay low until inflation flares significantly
30 October 2019 | Hemant Baijal, Meral Karasulu
The weakness in manufacturing and trade made the global economy lose momentum, but the Global Debt Team still expects the prospects of a global recession to be low.
30 October 2019 | Jacek Rostowski, Arnab Das
In this paper, we place the euro within the theory, history and current context of monetary unions, and analyze its future.
29 October 2019 | Kristina Hooper
Weekly Market Compass: After a positive week for stocks, markets brace for news on the Fed’s outlook, US-China trade negotiations, and the eurozone and Chinese economies.
22 October 2019 | Kristina Hooper
Weekly Market Compass: There are five main issues that could be causing concern for investors, but I believe an October sell-off looks unlikely
15 October 2019 | Kristina Hooper, David Chao
Seven key takeaways about the newly announced agreement
08 October 2019 | Brian Levitt
The subject of impeachment is capturing headlines across the US. But it’s important to remember that political surprises and machinations have typically produced short-term market implications that prove to be mere blips in the long-term advance of US equities.
02 October 2019 | Kristina Hooper
Examining impeachment, the ongoing Brexit saga, and the US-China trade situation
17 September 2019 | Kristina Hooper
ECB President Mario Draghi made it clear last week that governments need to step up fiscal stimulus. But what if they don’t? While “helicopter money” certainly has its drawbacks, the concept of becoming a "spender of last resort" may be worth consideration by central banks such as the ECB.
10 September 2019 | Brian Levitt, Arnab Das and David Chao
Our Global Market Strategists address the key questions facing each region
27 August 2019 | Kristina Hooper
There is little that the Fed can do solve a tariff war
20 August 2019 | Kristina Hooper
These metrics can provide a bigger picture of the US economy, but tariffs remain the ‘wild card’
15 August 2019 | Kristina Hooper, Brian Levitt and Timothy Horsburgh
Historically, this has often been the case. But this time may be different.
13 August 2019 | Kristina Hooper
The making of a classic suspense movie shows us that confidence can’t trump reality
06 August 2019 | Kristina Hooper
Weekly Market Compass: China stands firm as Trump proposes a fresh round of tariffs
31 July 2019 | Arnab Das, Paul Jackson, Luca Tobagi
Invesco's Global Market Strategy Office analyzes what the European Central Bank's latest decision means for European assets - and beyond.
30 July 2019 | Kristina Hooper
Weekly Market Compass: When central banks intervene, investors may need to rethink accepted risk/reward profiles
23 July 2019 | Brian Levitt
Weekly Market Compass: Market gyrations can make investors want to run, but history shows stocks’ ability to overcome these concerns
10 July 2019 | Kristina Hooper
How will central-bank activism and trade tensions affect global assets in the second half of the year? Invesco’s Global Market Strategy Office explains.
09 July 2019 | Kristina Hooper
Weekly Market Compass: One economic risk looks to be resolved, but has another taken its place?
08 July 2019 | Invesco
Our seventh annual study into the investment objectives and behaviors of sovereign investors.
25 June 2019 | Kristina Hooper
Weekly Market Compass: Trade wars remain a concern for the economy, but central banks appear poised to help
11 June 2019 | Kristina Hooper
Weekly Market Compass: US cancels its tariffs on Mexico, China warns against traveling to the US, and central banks appear more open to accommodation
29 May 2019 | Kristina Hooper
Weekly Market Compass: What does the fragmented parliamentary election mean for Europe?
20 May 2019 | Arnab Das, Jennifer Johnson-Calari and Adam Kobor
Arnab Das and co-researchers explore the role of the USD as a store of value in foreign currency reserves and as a means of exchange for international trade.
14 May 2019 | Kristina Hooper
Weekly Market Compass: Consumer spending could suffer as companies try to pass on price increases
30 April 2019 | Kristina Hooper
Weekly Market Compass: Polarization is expected to increase, prompting new alliances and coalitions
29 March 2019 | Arnab Das and Michael Siviter
In a series of March 27 votes, we saw more support for softer Brexit options — but no resolution yet
26 March 2019 | Kristina Hooper
Weekly Market Compass: Also, will the third time be a charm for Theresa May’s Brexit plan?
21 March 2019 | Arnab Das and Michael Siviter
The chances of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit have lessened, but the timeline to resolution has lengthened.
12 March 2019 | Kristina Hooper
Weekly Market Compass: Can central banks’ policy shift offset the economic slowdown?
05 March 2019 | Kristina Hooper
Weekly Market Compass: Assessing the state of trade, and six events to watch this week
01 March 2019 | David Chao
Invesco’s Global Market Strategist in Asia David Chao shares his views on China A-shares’ good performance.
26 February 2019 | Kristina Hooper
Weekly Market Compass: On the surface, last week brought good news for stocks, but uncertainties remain
22 February 2019 | Kristina Hooper
Kristina Hooper discusses how geopolitical risks, especially populism and nationalism, can impact institutional investors.
21 February 2019 | Mark Giuliano
Third-party supply chain risks are a growing threat to corporate and client data. We explain how these risks can be minimized.
19 February 2019 | Dr. Henning Stein, Anna Penn, Lindsay Hudson
We look at how proper distilling and refining of ideas can affect how a company operates.
15 January 2019 | Kristina Hooper
Weekly Market Compass: Investors seem to be tuning out everything except trade wars and Fed tightening
08 January 2019 | Kristina Hooper
Weekly Market Compass: In an era of globalization, trade wars mean losses for all sides
07 December 2018 | Kristina Hooper
Weekly Market Compass: We expect continued volatility as markets overreact to positive and negative news
04 December 2018 | Kristina Hooper
Weekly Market Compass: The Federal Reserve’s tone has become more dovish, while the US and China have made progress on trade
World economy: cyclical divergence and structural fragmentation are major risks, but not central scenarios
29 November 2018 | Arnab Das
The global economy is shifting from synchronized recovery to cyclical divergence as political risks threaten economic and financial fragmentation along geopolitical fault lines.
20 November 2018 | Kristina Hooper
Weekly Market Compass: Monitoring geopolitical developments, eurozone inflation and a potential US government shutdown
08 November 2018 | Kristina Hooper and Arnab Das
Assessing the impact of the US midterm elections on four key areas
30 October 2018 | Kristina Hooper
Weekly Market Compass: Stock market turbulence continues
30 October 2018 | In partnership with (E) BrandConnect
The smart city of the future will leverage technology to improve the overall quality of life for citizens, including their safety, health and more. Doing so could also create attractive new investment opportunities.
30 October 2018 | In partnership with the Economist Intelligence Unit
Making cities “smart” is the way of the future, but traditional infrastructure financing models may not work well to realise such a vision. How can cities navigate this new investment landscape?
19 October 2018 | Arnab Das
The fourth industrial revolution is well under way. Its effects should be factored into asset allocation here and now, and tracked and reassessed regularly.
09 October 2018 | Kristina Hooper
Weekly Market Compass: Identifying the trends behind key data releases and trade agreements
10 September 2018 | John Greenwood
Chief Economist John Greenwood analyzes whether East Asia is at risk from the ills of the current crises in Argentina, Turkey and Venezuela.
14 August 2018 | Kristina Hooper
Weekly Market Compass: The UK, China and Iran have also experienced currency pressure
10 August 2018 | Kristina Hooper
Chief Global Market Strategist, Kristina Hooper, answers some of the most common questions she hears from institutional investors, including those on interest rates, inflation, and trade wars.
08 August 2018 | Stuart Parks and Paula Niall
Four years after Narendra Modi became Prime Minister of India, there are good reasons to be optimistic about his reform programme and the impact it may have on economic growth in the medium term. We have identified six key areas of significant positive change.
17 July 2018 | Kristina Hooper
Weekly Market Compass: Global summits and key data releases top the list of what to watch
09 July 2018 | Invesco
Our sixth Invesco Global Sovereign Asset Management Study seeks to provide unique insights into the investment objectives and behaviours of sovereign investors during a challenging investment environment.
03 July 2018 | Kristina Hooper
Weekly Market Compass: Administrations and corporations continue to respond to Trump's tariff plans
20 June 2018 | Stephen Quance
A factor-based approach can accommodate unique ESG objectives without constraining performance and provides flexibility to adapt to any new developments
12 June 2018 | Kristina Hooper
Weekly Market Compass: Interest rate decisions are also in the spotlight
23 May 2018 | Kristina Hooper
Weekly Market Compass: There are several reasons why high oil prices may pressure stocks
15 May 2018 | Bonnie Saynay, Dr. Henning Stein and Ulrika Hasselgren
Responsible investing requires consolidation towards globally agreed standards on corporate reporting and the utilization of meaningful metrics
14 May 2018 | Evan Jaysane-Darr, Jessica Mulvihill and Mariam Waheed
The advent of blockchain has the potential to be the beginning of a new technological revolution
07 May 2018 | Kristina Hooper
While some countries’ economic expansions are aging, others are just getting started
03 May 2018 | John Greenwood
US banks are mostly healed and consumers exhibit willingness to borrow again
30 April 2018 | Kristina Hooper
Insights on tariffs, economic growth, central banks and more
24 April 2018 | Kristina Hooper
What does the recent jump in the 10-year US Treasury yield mean for markets?
10 April 2018 | Kristina Hooper
The key drivers of stock market optimism remain intact, for now
09 April 2018 | Michael Fraikin and Dr. Henning Stein
Despite crowding concerns, low-volatility investing should remain relevant in future market environments
22 March 2018 | Paul Chan
Paul Chan, Head of Multi-Asset & Hong Kong Pensions, discusses the latest market happenings and how pension investors should position themselves
20 March 2018 | Kristina Hooper
Transitions at US and China central banks are key events to watch this week
06 March 2018 | Invesco Asian Investment Team
China delivered solid economic performance and made notable headway on reforms in selected areas in 2017
01 March 2018 | Invesco
The staggering scale of Belt and Road ensures it will have a defining impact on several sectors
13 February 2018 | Kristina Hooper
Making sense of why markets have changed course and where to find new opportunities
06 February 2018 | John Greenwood
Has Abenomics finally hit its stride and started delivering growth? Chief Economist, John Greenwood, examines the latest data on the third largest economy in world.
02 February 2018 | Stephen Quance
Asian institutional investors increased allocations to factor investing in 2017
20 December 2017 | John Greenwood
The current US expansion has further to go and could become the longest in US history. Economic growth in the eurozone is gaining momentum but will face a headwind if there is a slowdown in credit creation. A modest increase in global trade is likely to support Asian economies, including China.
14 December 2017 | Nixon Mak and Nicholas Savoulides
The rising tide of liabilities in this region makes risk management for insurers and pension funds an increasingly important consideration
08 December 2017 | Invesco
Insights from the 2017 Invesco Asia Pacific Institutional Client Conference
06 December 2017 | Kristina Hooper
Global growth and still-accommodative monetary policies are likely to be key drivers of stocks
01 December 2017 | John Greenwood
The current US expansion may have further to go and could become the longest in US history
23 October 2017 | Invesco
At the feet of giants: 5 years of observing the world’s sovereign investors
02 October 2017 | Stephen Quance
Factor investing is a growing area of investment, with many in Asia interested to learn more and how it applies to their portfolios.
01 October 2017 | Stephen Quance
Invesco's second annual global factor investing study was conducted with 108 different investors and intermediaries across 19 countries. The study identifies five key themes, illustrating the factor investing landscape and sentiment among some of the largest investors in the world.
28 September 2017 | Paul Chan
Paul Chan, Head of Multi Asset & Hong Kong Pensions at Invesco, discusses his latest views on the Asian market and how pension investors should position themselves.
26 September 2017 | John Greenwood
In the years since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), China experienced an exceptional credit surge in three waves, raising many eyebrows over the resulting credit bubble. However, in the past year, this surge has slowed down substantially. As China’s credit bubble deflates, it is likely that China will experience mild deflation in coming two years.
31 August 2017 | John Greenwood
All this year the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has been confidently stating that the US economy was strengthening and that any inflation weakness was “transitory,” but it is now starting to look more than simply transitory.
31 July 2017 | John Greenwood
China has adopted varying policies to maintain the economic momentum and keep everything stable ahead of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party — sometimes tightening, sometimes easing.
25 July 2017 | Invesco Consulting
It’s not just about what you say; it’s what people hear.
05 July 2017 | Invesco Equity Investment team in Asia
Largest-ever indirect tax reform is expected to promote sustainable economic growth
27 June 2017 | Stephen Anness and Andy Hall
Recent moves towards a retreat from globalisation do not demand a concomitant retreat from global equities. Setting aside any arguments about the broader geopolitical wisdom of greater isolationism, our objective view is that a comparative increase in market disintegration simply presents new and different opportunities for sophisticated investors.
25 June 2017 | Invesco
The newest thing or a time-tested approach to investing? Factor investing has been the focus of interest in recent times however factor based approaches aren't new.
14 June 2017 | John Greenwood
Financial markets, especially bonds, emerging market equities and currencies, were severely shocked back in May-September 2013 when Ben Bernanke, then Fed chairman, announced the intention to slow down the Fed’s purchases of securities.
12 June 2017 | Bonnie Saynay & Dr. Henning Stein
In this Whitepaper we consider the different approaches to ESG taken in the investment industry, the evidence of the impact of adopting ESG criteria on investment performance and the approaches to ESG investing offered by Invesco.
18 May 2017 | Invesco
Many single factors can outperform in discrete periods however can face excessive drawdowns. Multi-factor approaches balance the cyclicality and volatility of individual factors.
07 May 2017 | John Greenwood
Emmanuel Macron’s victory in Sunday’s French presidential election Sunday has been met with a mixture of relief and enthusiasm at home and abroad. He overcame his opponent, the far-right leader Marine Le Pen, by 66% of the vote to 34%.
04 May 2017 | Jeff Taylor
Counting down to French presidential election. Jeff Taylor, Head of European Equities team from Invesco shares his views on how the victory of Macron or Le Pen will impact France and the wider European economy and financial markets.
23 April 2017 | John Greenwood
The Trump “reflation trade” is being undermined by the failure of the new US administration to implement planned legislation, specifically the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), corporate and personal tax cuts and the border adjustment tax.
12 April 2017 | Invesco
Unlike traditional stock picking, factor investing builds on exposures to particular traits (called factors), that exhibit superior returns relative to a broad market-capitalisation weighted index benchmark.
19 March 2017 | Invesco
In recent years, interest in factor-based investing has increased meaningfully as market participants seek precise and systematic solutions to achieve their investment objectives.
08 March 2017 | Invesco Asian Investment team
As the National People’s Congress convenes, we highlight three government priorities to watch.
27 February 2017 | John Greenwood
The question is: how long the Chinese yuan (RMB) will continue to depreciate; and how much will China’s exchange
21 February 2017 | Invesco
Investors should base their decisions on objective facts rather than emotions, and to ignore simplistic conclusions that don't take into account the whole story.
20 February 2017 | Invesco Asia-Pacific
Structural growth in India – especially domestic consumption – remains promising over the long term. Looking ahead, we expect corporate earnings and global liquidity to remain market drivers. We will closely monitor corporate earnings, together with the GST bill rollout and financial inclusion.
09 January 2017 | John Greenwood
Invesco’s Chief Economist John Greenwood believes economic recovery will differ across developed and emerging economies depending on the respective national monetary policies applied. There remain opportunities in developed markets like the US and for emerging economies less reliant on commodities as a source of GDP.
09 January 2017 | Nick Mustoe
With valuations high, where can investors find equity opportunities? Invesco Perpetual’s Chief Investment Officer Nick Mustoe believes a shift in fiscal policy could have profound implications for the bond markets in his 2017 outlook.
24 November 2016 | Invesco Asian Investment Team
Talking Points - India's Demonetization - A Long-Term Positive
04 October 2016 | Invesco Asian Investment Team
Talking Points - Allowing Chinese Insurers to use Stock Connect