Insights - Macro

At Invesco, we believe that high-quality results begin with specialized insight. We share our views and experience with clients via thought leadership materials.

What’s next for Brexit?

17 January 2019 | Arnab Das and Michael Siviter

After the dramatic defeat of the UK Prime Minister’s EU withdrawal plan, Arnab Das and Michael Siviter predict five scenarios for the future EU-UK relationship.

Investor sentiment stays positive despite geopolitical drama

15 January 2019 | Kristina Hooper

Weekly Market Compass: Investors seem to be tuning out everything except trade wars and Fed tightening

A modern-day War of the Roses: Is a real winner possible in the US-China trade war?

08 January 2019 | Kristina Hooper

Weekly Market Compass: In an era of globalization, trade wars mean losses for all sides

2019 Outlook: A complete compilation of views

27 December 2018 | Invesco

A complete compilation of 17 investment outlooks across asset classes

No holiday in sight for global disruption

18 December 2018 | Kristina Hooper

Weekly Market Compass: A long list of challenges will follow markets into the new year

Putting the sell-off in perspective

12 December 2018 | Kristina Hooper

Weekly Market Compass: Despite the recent bad news, I am more positive today than I was earlier in the year

2019 Outlook: Global markets

10 December 2018 | Kristina Hooper

Three themes to watch in 2019

2019 Outlook: Global economy

10 December 2018 | John Greenwood

Global economy expected to grow with low inflation in 2019

Stock losses snowball across the globe in a December sell-off

07 December 2018 | Kristina Hooper

Weekly Market Compass: We expect continued volatility as markets overreact to positive and negative news

Could December be the start of a ‘Santa Pause’ rally for stocks?

04 December 2018 | Kristina Hooper

Weekly Market Compass: The Federal Reserve’s tone has become more dovish, while the US and China have made progress on trade

World economy: cyclical divergence and structural fragmentation are major risks, but not central scenarios

29 November 2018 | Arnab Das

The global economy is shifting from synchronized recovery to cyclical divergence as political risks threaten economic and financial fragmentation along geopolitical fault lines.

Central banks to the rescue? Don’t count on it

27 November 2018 | Kristina Hooper

Weekly Market Compass: Economic data has been worsening, but there may be holes in the traditional central bank ‘safety net’

Amid concerns of a global slowdown, Fed looks likely to act

20 November 2018 | Kristina Hooper

Weekly Market Compass: Monitoring geopolitical developments, eurozone inflation and a potential US government shutdown

Five issues for investors to watch

13 November 2018 | Kristina Hooper

Weekly Market Compass: Trade tops the list once again, while central banks take center stage this week

The midterm results are in, but what do they mean for markets

08 November 2018 | Kristina Hooper and Arnab Das

Assessing the impact of the US midterm elections on four key areas

Anticipating the US midterm results

06 November 2018 | Kristina Hooper

Weekly Market Compass: Short-term volatility is likely, but what could results mean for the longer term?

October lives up to its frightening reputation for investors

30 October 2018 | Kristina Hooper

Weekly Market Compass: Stock market turbulence continues

Smart Cities: Intelligent infrastructure

30 October 2018 | In partnership with (E) BrandConnect

The smart city of the future will leverage technology to improve the overall quality of life for citizens, including their safety, health and more. Doing so could also create attractive new investment opportunities.

Smart cities: Predicting urban evolution

30 October 2018 | In partnership with (E) BrandConnect

Institutional real-estate investors are mining smart-city data to understand the opportunities created by new patterns of movement, improved energy efficiency and future climate change.

Smart cities: The end of traffic jams?

30 October 2018 | In partnership with (E) BrandConnect

Smart-city transport solutions—from intelligent toll roads to scooter-sharing systems—are making cities more efficient and breathable.

Smart cities: Investing in the future

30 October 2018 | In partnership with the Economist Intelligence Unit

Making cities “smart” is the way of the future, but traditional infrastructure financing models may not work well to realise such a vision. How can cities navigate this new investment landscape?

The impact of trade tensions on the region

25 October 2018 | John Greenwood

Amid protracted trade tensions between China and the US, chief economist John Greenwood shares his views on what is happening to China’s and regional economies.

Five issues rattling global markets

23 October 2018 | Kristina Hooper

Weekly Market Compass: Trade tops the list once again, while central banks take center stage this week

Five key takeaways from the IMF annual meeting

22 October 2018 | Arnab Das

Invesco reports from scene of the most bearish gathering in memory

Industrial revolution 4.0: ghosts of disruption past, present and future

19 October 2018 | Arnab Das

The fourth industrial revolution is well under way. Its effects should be factored into asset allocation here and now, and tracked and reassessed regularly.

Will the global stock sell-off continue?

16 October 2018 | Kristina Hooper

Weekly Market Compass: Earnings may provide support as the threats of normalization and protectionism continue

US stocks plunge in tech-fueled rout

11 October 2018 | Kristina Hooper

Protectionism and Fed normalization may have created the ‘perfect storm’ for market disruption

Jobs, trade and the economy: What did we learn last week?

09 October 2018 | Kristina Hooper

Weekly Market Compass: Identifying the trends behind key data releases and trade agreements

Five things to watch in October

02 October 2018 | Kristina Hooper

Weekly Market Compass: Trade talks top the list of critical issues

Stocks shrug off rising geopolitical risks

25 September 2018 | Kristina Hooper

Weekly Market Compass: The 10-year US Treasury yield crosses the key 3% level

Global election preview

18 September 2018 | Kristina Hooper

Weekly Market Compass: Voters in Japan, Brazil and the US will soon go to the polls

Trade remains the top concern for global markets

11 September 2018 | Kristina Hooper

Weekly Market Compass: As the US talks trade with Canada and China, emerging markets feel the pressure

Emerging market crisis – will there be contagion to East Asia?

10 September 2018 | John Greenwood

Chief Economist John Greenwood analyzes whether East Asia is at risk from the ills of the current crises in Argentina, Turkey and Venezuela.

Seven issues for investors to watch in September

05 September 2018 | Kristina Hooper

Weekly Market Compass: Trade deals, the Italian budget, emerging markets pressure and more

Reading the tea leaves from the central banks

28 August 2018 | Kristina Hooper

Weekly Market Compass: What did we learn last week from the central banks, trade talks and the markets?

Global markets: Five issues to watch

21 August 2018 | Kristina Hooper

Weekly Market Compass: Turkey’s woes continue, the US and China will talk about trade (again), and more

A map for the future of the euro

17 August 2018 | Invesco

Navigating political conflicts through an informed and practical framework

What currency pressures in Turkey and other countries may mean for investors

14 August 2018 | Kristina Hooper

Weekly Market Compass: The UK, China and Iran have also experienced currency pressure

Taking stock: Addressing key questions from institutional investors

10 August 2018 | Kristina Hooper

Chief Global Market Strategist, Kristina Hooper, answers some of the most common questions she hears from institutional investors, including those on interest rates, inflation, and trade wars.

Four years on: Modi lays down building blocks for growth in India

08 August 2018 | Stuart Parks and Paula Niall

Four years after Narendra Modi became Prime Minister of India, there are good reasons to be optimistic about his reform programme and the impact it may have on economic growth in the medium term. We have identified six key areas of significant positive change.

Four key issues to watch in August

07 August 2018 | Kristina Hooper

Weekly Market Compass: Several critical issues are heating up this summer, including trade and Brexit

Is it time to worry about a liquidity crisis?

31 July 2018 | Kristina Hooper

Weekly Market Compass: As central banks normalize, market liquidity is coming under pressure

Trade wars: A worldwide web of worry

24 July 2018 | Kristina Hooper

Weekly Market Compass: Concern grows about the impact of tariffs on the global economy

Quarterly Economic Outlook – July 2018

17 July 2018 | John Greenwood

Short-term disruption unlikely to derail the fundamental factors driving the global business cycle upswing

Tariffs, earnings and politics: What’s moving markets this week?

17 July 2018 | Kristina Hooper

Weekly Market Compass: Global summits and key data releases top the list of what to watch

Six issues driving global markets

10 July 2018 | Kristina Hooper

Weekly Market Compass: Examining trade tensions, job reports and the concerns of the Federal Reserve

Invesco Global Sovereign Asset Management Study - 2018

09 July 2018 | Invesco

Our sixth Invesco Global Sovereign Asset Management Study seeks to provide unique insights into the investment objectives and behaviours of sovereign investors during a challenging investment environment.

Broad Diversity as a Driver of Meritocracy

06 July 2018 | Invesco

Investments are often a matter of both diversity and meritocracy, highlighting the fundamental value of an inclusive culture

Six ways the trade situation deteriorated in the past week

03 July 2018 | Kristina Hooper

Weekly Market Compass: Administrations and corporations continue to respond to Trump's tariff plans

What's in store for markets in the second half?

26 June 2018 | Kristina Hooper

Weekly Market Compass: Five trends to watch for during the remainder of 2018

Accommodating ESG objectives through factor investing

20 June 2018 | Stephen Quance

A factor-based approach can accommodate unique ESG objectives without constraining performance and provides flexibility to adapt to any new developments

Central banks take center stage

19 June 2018 | Kristina Hooper

Weekly Market Compass: Many major banks are tightening, but trade threatens to disrupt economic progress

Trade takes center stage as long-term alliances become strained

12 June 2018 | Kristina Hooper

Weekly Market Compass: Interest rate decisions are also in the spotlight

Protectionism rears its ugly head again

05 June 2018 | Kristina Hooper

Weekly Market Compass: New US tariffs may have a long-reaching impact on the global economy

Is Italy headed for an EU exit?

30 May 2018 | Kristina Hooper

Weekly Market Compass: Italy’s election chaos has roiled the media, but the market reaction has been contained.

What do higher oil prices mean for the stock market?

23 May 2018 | Kristina Hooper

Weekly Market Compass: There are several reasons why high oil prices may pressure stocks

Market disruption shows no signs of slowing down

15 May 2018 | Kristina Hooper

Weekly Market Compass: Examining the Brexit transition, Italy’s coalition and the Iran nuclear accord

In search of authenticity in ESG integration

15 May 2018 | Bonnie Saynay, Dr. Henning Stein and Ulrika Hasselgren

Responsible investing requires consolidation towards globally agreed standards on corporate reporting and the utilization of meaningful metrics

The latest frenzy: rise of the token

14 May 2018 | Evan Jaysane-Darr, Jessica Mulvihill and Mariam Waheed

The advent of blockchain has the potential to be the beginning of a new technological revolution

Do demographics explain structural inflation?

10 May 2018 | Ray Janssen

Demographics-related inflation will be a more impactful force in global economy as we move into the next decade

Currency management with style

09 May 2018 | Dr. Martin Kolrep and Dr. Harald Lohre

Factors can expand the opportunity set of traditional asset allocation when pursuing either FX tail-hedging or return-seeking strategies

Is the ‘synchronized’ global expansion really in sync?

07 May 2018 | Kristina Hooper

While some countries’ economic expansions are aging, others are just getting started

A closer look at US corporate and household balance sheets

03 May 2018 | John Greenwood

US banks are mostly healed and consumers exhibit willingness to borrow again

Five takeaways from April and five things to watch in May

30 April 2018 | Kristina Hooper

Insights on tariffs, economic growth, central banks and more

Quarterly economic outlook – Q2 2018

24 April 2018 | John Greenwood

Weakening economic momentum does not spell the end of the global recovery, only a slowing in the pace of recovery.

Yield signs: Deconstructing a key market indicator

24 April 2018 | Kristina Hooper

What does the recent jump in the 10-year US Treasury yield mean for markets?

As US-China trade drama continues, is a risk-off stance warranted?

10 April 2018 | Kristina Hooper

The key drivers of stock market optimism remain intact, for now

Low-volatility investing: Standing out from the crowd

09 April 2018 | Michael Fraikin and Dr. Henning Stein

Despite crowding concerns, low-volatility investing should remain relevant in future market environments

Five things to watch in April

04 April 2018 | Kristina Hooper

Assessing the road ahead after a turbulent first quarter

SOE reform is making good progress

23 March 2018 | Mike Shiao and William Yuen

SOEs have made notable progress in reducing excess capacity, optimizing balance sheets and enhancing corporate governance

Fundamentals remain strong despite market volatility

22 March 2018 | Paul Chan

Paul Chan, Head of Multi-Asset & Hong Kong Pensions, discusses the latest market happenings and how pension investors should position themselves

US inflation and recession scares

20 March 2018 | John Greenwood

No basis for upsurge in US inflation or recession despite market jitters

Revolving headlines lead to a tug of war for stocks

20 March 2018 | Kristina Hooper

Transitions at US and China central banks are key events to watch this week

China’s NPC 2018: Seeking progress while maintaining stability

06 March 2018 | Invesco Asian Investment Team

China delivered solid economic performance and made notable headway on reforms in selected areas in 2017

Euro strength is good news

02 March 2018 | Arnab Das

Euro strength is itself good news and reflects good economic news – as long as it doesn’t go too far or too fast.

Redefining the financial landscape with Belt and Road

01 March 2018 | Invesco

The staggering scale of Belt and Road ensures it will have a defining impact on several sectors

Good news is bad news: Deconstructing the market sell-off

13 February 2018 | Kristina Hooper

Making sense of why markets have changed course and where to find new opportunities

Is Abenomics finally revitalising Japan's economy?

06 February 2018 | John Greenwood

Has Abenomics finally hit its stride and started delivering growth? Chief Economist, John Greenwood, examines the latest data on the third largest economy in world.

Factor investing takes hold in Asia as new asset management tool

02 February 2018 | Stephen Quance

Asian institutional investors increased allocations to factor investing in 2017

India FY19 Union Budget - Fostering the recovery

02 February 2018 | Invesco Asian Investment Team

The Union Budget has maintained a good balance between fiscal consolidation and growth stimulation

Sustainable investing...but how?

19 January 2018 | Manuela von Ditfurth and Dr. Martin Kolrep

We consider various ways of implementing ESG criteria in a portfolio and explain why the effort may be worth it

All signs point to a sustained global expansion - 2018 outlook video

20 December 2017 | John Greenwood

The current US expansion has further to go and could become the longest in US history. Economic growth in the eurozone is gaining momentum but will face a headwind if there is a slowdown in credit creation. A modest increase in global trade is likely to support Asian economies, including China.

2018 Outlook: A complete compilation of views

18 December 2017 | Invesco

A complete compilation of 15 investment outlooks across asset classes

An introduction to liability driven investing in Asia

14 December 2017 | Nixon Mak and Nicholas Savoulides

The rising tide of liabilities in this region makes risk management for insurers and pension funds an increasingly important consideration

Ahead of the future: Investing in transforming trends

08 December 2017 | Invesco

Insights from the 2017 Invesco Asia Pacific Institutional Client Conference

2018 Outlook: Global markets: 10 expectations for 2018

06 December 2017 | Kristina Hooper

Global growth and still-accommodative monetary policies are likely to be key drivers of stocks

2018 Outlook: All signs point towards a sustained global expansion

01 December 2017 | John Greenwood

The current US expansion may have further to go and could become the longest in US history

The vexing issue of inflation

27 November 2017 | Kristina Hooper

Central banks and investors are grappling with uncertainty about the future of inflation

Quarterly Economic Outlook Q4 2017

23 October 2017 | John Greenwood

The global business cycle expansion is still intact, supported by continuing growth in the US, joined now by a gathering upturn in the Eurozone and
the start of a renewed upswing in global trade.

Invesco Global Sovereign Asset Management Study 2013-17

23 October 2017 | Invesco

At the feet of giants: 5 years of observing the world’s sovereign investors

Central bank whitepaper: Managing liquidity risk

20 October 2017 | Arnab Das, Jennifer Johnson-Calari and Adam Kobor

A decline in market liquidity poses several challenges for central banks with ample reserves

Sustainable Factor Investing

12 October 2017 | Manuela von Ditfurth and Andreas Hoepner

The advent of what might be called sustainable factor investing has positive implications for the sphere of investment and beyond

The essentials of factor investing with Stephen Quance

02 October 2017 | Stephen Quance

Factor investing is a growing area of investment, with many in Asia interested to learn more and how it applies to their portfolios.

Global Factor Investing Study 2017

01 October 2017 | Stephen Quance

Invesco's second annual global factor investing study was conducted with 108 different investors and intermediaries across 19 countries. The study identifies five key themes, illustrating the factor investing landscape and sentiment among some of the largest investors in the world.

Asia’s technology development brings disruption to traditional industries

28 September 2017 | Paul Chan

Paul Chan, Head of Multi Asset & Hong Kong Pensions at Invesco, discusses his latest views on the Asian market and how pension investors should position themselves.

China may see mild deflation as its credit bubble deflates and money supply growth slows

26 September 2017 | John Greenwood

In the years since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), China experienced an exceptional credit surge in three waves, raising many eyebrows over the resulting credit bubble. However, in the past year, this surge has slowed down substantially. As China’s credit bubble deflates, it is likely that China will experience mild deflation in coming two years.

US inflation may trend lower than the Fed would like

31 August 2017 | John Greenwood

All this year the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has been confidently stating that the US economy was strengthening and that any inflation weakness was “transitory,” but it is now starting to look more than simply transitory.

Asian Insights - Q3 2017

10 August 2017 | Asian Investment team

Looking ahead, what will be the next catalysts for growth and increased earnings in Asia? We believe a stable political landscape and acceleration of reforms will be the key drivers for Asian markets.

Stability is the key ahead of China’s Communist Party Congress

31 July 2017 | John Greenwood

China has adopted varying policies to maintain the economic momentum and keep everything stable ahead of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party — sometimes tightening, sometimes easing.

Invesco Consulting language study - New Word Order

25 July 2017 | Invesco Consulting

It’s not just about what you say; it’s what people hear.

Q3 Outlook with Paul Chan

19 July 2017 | Paul Chan

Paul Chan, Head of Multi-Asset & Hong Kong Pensions at Invesco, explains how pension investors should position themselves in light of the shrinking Fed balance sheet, and why he prefers US equities to European equities.

Proxy Voting: The hallmark of active ownership

18 July 2017 | Bonnie Saynay and Dr Henning Stein

Institutional investors owned less than 8% of US public equities by market capitalisation in the 1950s; this figure had grown to nearer 67% in the past decade.

Quarterly Economic Outlook Q3 2017

06 July 2017 | John Greenwood

The Trump “reflation rally” has continued however due more to the underlying expansion of the US business cycle than to any Trump effect.

India's GST bill rollout: Structural benefits in the offing

05 July 2017 | Invesco Equity Investment team in Asia

Largest-ever indirect tax reform is expected to promote sustainable economic growth

Global Opportunities in a Deglobalising World

27 June 2017 | Stephen Anness and Andy Hall

Recent moves towards a retreat from globalisation do not demand a concomitant retreat from global equities. Setting aside any arguments about the broader geopolitical wisdom of greater isolationism, our objective view is that a comparative increase in market disintegration simply presents new and different opportunities for sophisticated investors.

Introduction to factor investing series - Trend or time-tested approach?

25 June 2017 | Invesco

The newest thing or a time-tested approach to investing? Factor investing has been the focus of interest in recent times however factor based approaches aren't new.

Driverless cars and the automation revolution

20 June 2017 | Dave Dowsett

A natural progression in the wider context of automation, driverless cars are fast becoming a reality. Our investment professionals believe they present a broad range of opportunities in the near future.

Fed’s balance sheet normalization – what to expect

14 June 2017 | John Greenwood

Financial markets, especially bonds, emerging market equities and currencies, were severely shocked back in May-September 2013 when Ben Bernanke, then Fed chairman, announced the intention to slow down the Fed’s purchases of securities.

Responsible Investing and Active Ownership

12 June 2017 | Bonnie Saynay & Dr. Henning Stein

In this Whitepaper we consider the different approaches to ESG taken in the investment industry, the evidence of the impact of adopting ESG criteria on investment performance and the approaches to ESG investing offered by Invesco.

UK's surprising growth after the Brexit vote

30 May 2017 | John Greenwood

The UK experienced continued growth in the 1st quarter of 2017, much to the surprise of many. What are the drivers of this momentum? Our Chief Economist, John Greenwood, explores in his latest article.

Introduction to factor investing series - Beyond single factor approaches

18 May 2017 | Invesco

Many single factors can outperform in discrete periods however can face excessive drawdowns. Multi-factor approaches balance the cyclicality and volatility of individual factors.

French Presidential Election Result

07 May 2017 | John Greenwood

Emmanuel Macron’s victory in Sunday’s French presidential election Sunday has been met with a mixture of relief and enthusiasm at home and abroad. He overcame his opponent, the far-right leader Marine Le Pen, by 66% of the vote to 34%.

France: A market-friendly result which will help reduce the European risk premium

04 May 2017 | Jeff Taylor

Counting down to French presidential election. Jeff Taylor, Head of European Equities team from Invesco shares his views on how the victory of Macron or Le Pen will impact France and the wider European economy and financial markets.

Quarterly Economic Outlook Q2 2017

23 April 2017 | John Greenwood

The Trump “reflation trade” is being undermined by the failure of the new US administration to implement planned legislation, specifically the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), corporate and personal tax cuts and the border adjustment tax.

Introduction to factor investing series - Six common factors explained

12 April 2017 | Invesco

Unlike traditional stock picking, factor investing builds on exposures to particular traits (called factors), that exhibit superior returns relative to a broad market-capitalisation weighted index benchmark.

Dragon code: China's e-commerce growth

09 April 2017 | Mike Shiao

The growth of e-commerce in China is one of the country’s biggest success stories. Chinese e-commerce accounted for almost US$630 billion in sales in 2015, 80% higher than in the US.

Will Trump’s Fiscal Stimulus Create Inflation?

29 March 2017 | John Greenwood

Financial markets have reacted strongly to the election of President Donald Trump. While equities in the US and elsewhere have risen strongly, in turn a result of higher inflation expectations.

What makes a successful forecaster?

26 March 2017 | Scott E. Wolle

Without successful forecasting there is little chance of ever beating the market. We consider three levels of decision making relevant to investors.

Introduction to factor investing series - What is a factor?

19 March 2017 | Invesco

In recent years, interest in factor-based investing has increased meaningfully as market participants seek precise and systematic solutions to achieve their investment objectives.

China: Making solid progress on its Five-Year Plan

08 March 2017 | Invesco Asian Investment team

As the National People’s Congress convenes, we highlight three government priorities to watch.

History rhymes - a comparison of China today with Japan in the 1920s

27 February 2017 | John Greenwood

The question is: how long the Chinese yuan (RMB) will continue to depreciate; and how much will China’s exchange
reserves decline?

Active and Passive: Before you choose, know the facts

21 February 2017 | Invesco

Investors should base their decisions on objective facts rather than emotions, and to ignore simplistic conclusions that don't take into account the whole story.

India Outlook - Economic Rejuvenation Points Towards Long-term Positivity

20 February 2017 | Invesco Asia-Pacific

Structural growth in India – especially domestic consumption – remains promising over the long term. Looking ahead, we expect corporate earnings and global liquidity to remain market drivers. We will closely monitor corporate earnings, together with the GST bill rollout and financial inclusion.

How might Economic Recovery Differ Across Developed and Emerging Economies?

09 January 2017 | John Greenwood

Invesco’s Chief Economist John Greenwood believes economic recovery will differ across developed and emerging economies depending on the respective national monetary policies applied. There remain opportunities in developed markets like the US and for emerging economies less reliant on commodities as a source of GDP.