2019 Long Term Capital Market Assumptions
Thought Leadership
2019 Long Term Capital Market Assumptions
Another year of opportunities and challenges awaits
2019 promises to be another year of opportunities and challenges. We expect global growth to remain resilient but to slow across most major developed market (DM) and emerging market (EM) economies.
However, economic policy is now more explicitly politicized than at any time in the post Soviet / China-WTO era of globalization, which threatens the structure of a global economy open for trade, corporate and financial investment. The uncertainties of Brexit, Eurozone (EZ) political risk and US-China tensions are already affecting financial markets and confidence.
We expect cyclical deceleration to continue yet to leave growth near or above trend in key economies – especially in the US (2.5% real GDP growth) and EZ (1.7%), and still strong if slowing growth in major EMs, with China (6%) and India (7.4%).
- the US is not at any significant risk of recession, therefore, the US dollar is likely to experience continued volatility
- high yielding fixed income asset classes are set to offer respectable risk-adjusted returns over the longer-term
- global, US, UK and EZ equities are likely to deliver comparable risk-adjusted returns
- private equity, infrastructure and certain commodities are set to outperform other alternatives.
Our Global Solutions and Global Market Strategist teams think:
Looking into the future
Our 10-year asset class expectations (USD) are estimated using a "building block" approach. Estimates for income and capital gain components of returns for each asset class are informed by fundamental and historical data.
Our expectations cover major fixed income, equities and alternatives asset class from around the world.
Invesco Global Solutions
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We partner with you to fully understand your goals and harness strategies across Invesco’s global spectrum of active, passive, factor and alternative investments that address your unique needs. From robust research and analysis to bespoke investment solutions, our team brings insight and innovation to your portfolio construction process.