Capital Market Assumptions

Q3 2019 in United States Dollar (USD)

Executive summary

Asset class overview

Fixed income

Equity

Our expectations

About our methodology

We employ a fundamentally based “building block” approach to estimating asset class returns. Estimates for income and capital gain components of returns for each asset class are informed by fundamental and historical data. Components are then combined to establish estimated returns (Figure 8). Here we provide a summary of key elements of the methodology used to produce our long-term (10-year) estimates. Five-year assumptions are also available upon request. Please see Invesco’s capital market assumption methodology whitepaper for more detail.

Fixed income returns are composed of:

  • Average yield: The average of the starting (initial) yield and the expected yield for bonds.
  • Valuation change (yield curve): Estimated changes in valuation given changes in the Treasury yield curve.
  • Roll return: Reflects the impact on the price of bonds that are held over time. Given a positively sloped yield curve, a bond’s price will be positively impacted as interest payments remain fixed but time to maturity decreases.
  • Credit adjustment: Estimated potential impact on returns from credit rating downgrades and defaults.

Equity returns are composed of:

  • Dividend yield: Dividend per share divided by price per share.
  • Buyback yield: Percentage change in shares outstanding resulting from companies buying back or issuing shares.
  • Valuation change: The expected change in value given the current Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio and the assumption of reversion to the long-term average P/E ratio.
  • Long-term (LT) earnings growth: The estimated rate in the growth of earning based on the long-term average real GDP per capita and inflation.

Currency adjustments are based on the theory of Interest Rate Parity (IRP) which suggests a strong relationship between interest rates and the spot and forward exchange rates between two given currencies. Interest rate parity theory assumes that no arbitrage opportunities exist in foreign exchange markets. It is based on the notion that, over the long term, investors will be indifferent between varying rate of returns on deposits in different currencies because any excess return on deposits will be offset by changes in the relative value of currencies.

Volatility estimates for the different asset classes, we use rolling historical quarterly returns of various market benchmarks. Given that benchmarks have differing histories within and across asset classes, we normalize the volatility estimates of shorter-lived benchmarks to ensure that all series are measured over similar time periods.

Correlation estimates are calculated using trailing 20 years of monthly returns. Given that recent asset class correlations could have a more meaningful effect on future observations, we place greater weight on more recent observations by applying a 10-year half-life to the time series in our calculation.

Arithmetic versus geometric returns. Our building block methodology produces estimates of geometric (compound) asset class returns. However, standard mean-variance portfolio optimization requires return inputs to be provided in arithmetic rather than in geometric terms. This is because the arithmetic mean of a weighted sum (e.g., a portfolio) is the weighted sum of the arithmetic means (of portfolio constituents). This does not hold for geometric returns. Accordingly, we translate geometric estimates into arithmetic terms. We provide both arithmetic returns and geometric returns given that the former informs the optimization process regarding expected outcomes, while the latter informs the investor about the rate at which asset classes might be expected to grow wealth over the long run.