Over 100 investors and distribution partners gathered in London in May to discuss and debate Invesco Fixed Income’s (IFI) views on global macroeconomic trends. Macro themes play an important role in IFI’s investment process. Along with qualitative inputs, quantitative macroeconomic models help us project macro trends and interpret market movements based on a framework of “macro factors.”
Key macro conclusions
• We have revised up our 2018 US growth outlook due to the positive impact of fiscal stimulus under US tax reform. We expect US inflation to remain benign.
• We have observed some tightening in US financial conditions recently, driven by temporarily higher core inflation and more difficult short-dated funding conditions leading to increased interest rates and volatility. However, we expect overall financial conditions to moderate in the second half of the year.
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